July 30, 2007

Referendum on the not-a-constitution treaty

Looks like Ireland is going to have to have a referendum about the not-a-constitution treaty, which means that the odds of Gordon Brown announcing one here have got slightly better. This is not just because the Irish referendum proves that this isn't a tidying up exercise and it will have constitutional implications in Ireland (which is why they have to have it) and therefore presumably here as well. It also means that Irish might destroy the not-a-constitutional treaty before it reaches here meaning that he can call a referendum here as a way of spiking the Conservative's guns with less chance of actually having to fight (and possibly lose) it.


Blogger MatGB said...

The Irish pretty much always have a referendum, so much of the existing EU treaties have constitutional implications that they've voted on most of them IIRC.

As you know, I'm in favour of referenda on this sort of thing, I'd rather fight and lost than have this perpetual fog surrounding the issue, let's just settle it FFS.

But this isnt' a reason to get hopeful.

9:13 pm  
Blogger youdontknowme said...

The thing is the Irish leader has already admitted that it is a copy of the EU constitution.

4:18 pm  
Blogger chris said...

It is still very unlikely that we will get a referendum. But the chance that the Irish will vote 'No', like they did at the first time over Nice, reduces the risk to Gordon Brown by increasing the chances it will be dead before it gets to his turn. This tactic worked a charm for his predecessor who could never have betted on a 'Nee' much less a 'Non'. Still very unlikely, but maybe a touch less unlikely than before this was declared. If Sweden or Demark where to say they where going to have a referndum, now that would push the chances of Gordon Brown up to something more respectable.

Almost everybody already admits that it is pretty well identical to the Constitution. From memory the leaderships of Ireland, Belgium, and Italy say that it is practically identical. There are probably others that I've missed. Plus Valerie Giscard d’Estaing who was in charge of drafting it in the first place and therefore should know.

10:01 pm  

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